ANTICIPATING A LE PEN WIN

Le Pen’s first act on the international scene would be to travel to Brussels and hand a letter to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk outlining French ‘demands’ for EU reform i.e. return of territorial borders; monetary and budgetary; economic; and legislative sovereignty.

Le Pen foresees a period of talks with the EU before she holds a referendum on membership after the Italian election or sometime in late 2018.

Le Pen would seek to build a coalition of member countries that also want reform, or unravel the EU among which Spain, Portugal, Italy, Finland, Greece, Hungary and Austria. The aim would be to obtain a total reconsideration of the EU’s basic principles in order to return sovereignty to nation states.

The vast majority of EU Member States, including Germany would strongly resist her demands and not cooperate with her in order to save the EU. Germany could very well go about assembling a coalition of pro-euro states, taking advantage of the fact that France would be under financial attack and looking weak.

During the negotiations, which could last for more than a year, the most likely scenario would be a Brexit-style standoff between France and a pro-EU coalition of countries. Until Le Pen tabled Article 50, triggering its official divorce (assuming she won the referendum on EU membership), Germany would probably play the clock, hand out as few concessions as possible and take measures to insulate the rest of the eurozone from financial attacks against France.

Currently, a clear majority of the French support remaining in the EU and preserving the euro but there has been no national debate on the question. As she worked to drum up support, Le Pen could be expected to use tensions and standoffs with other European leaders to feed discussion on the euro at home. She would have robust discussion on the euro to influence the outcome of elections in Germany and Italy scheduled for September 2017 and, at the latest, May 2018, respectively. In a best-case scenario for Le Pen, elections would see social democrats opposed to austerity elected in Germany and the Euroskeptic 5 Star Movement take power in Italy.

With immigration suspended, a divisive debate on the euro raging and Europe split, Le Pen could sometime in early 2018, seek to dissolve parliament and try again to obtain a ruling majority or she could use the Article 16 of the Constitution that allows the President to take full control if the nation’s independence, territorial integrity or international engagements are under threat. A major terrorist attack or a full blown financial crisis preventing the government of borrowing on international markets could meet that criteria.