THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS ?

"There will be tough new restrictions on access to our welfare system for EU migrants -- no more something for nothing. Britain will never join the euro. And we've secured vital protections for our economy and a full say over the rules of the free trade single market while remaining outside the euro. I believe that this is enough for me to recommend that the United Kingdom remain in the European Union, having the best of both worlds."

Key Points of Cameron’s EU deal

  1. Treaty change: Two elements of the package are to be enshrined in future EU treaty amendments: a special exemption for Britain from further political integration under "ever closer union"; and elements of an accord to ensure fair treatment of financial and economic arrangements between the eurozone and non-euro EU states. Cameron also got his "red card" measure, though it requires the backing of 55 percent of the 28 national parliaments, making it likely hard to avail of in practice. On subsidiarity, Cameron also says he is set to bring in new measures to protect British sovereignty soon.
  2. In-work benefits: Britain will be entitled to deny in-work benefits to newly arrived workers from other EU states for their first four years in the country; it will be able to apply this "emergency brake" to new arrivals during a seven-year period from the measure first being used.
  3. Child benefit: An EU-wide indexation system affecting payments of child benefit to workers whose children live in another EU state comes into force for new claimants immediately and for all claimants on January 1, 2020. The system will let governments index the level of payments made for children living in another member state to the cost of living there and the level of child benefits there.
  4. Protecting Britian's financial industry: The agreement  stresses the need for a "level playing field" in financial and banking regulation. It gives Britain the right to supervise financial institutions and markets to preserve financial stability. This is "without prejudice" to the existing powers of the European Union to act to protect financial stability. The EU also recognises more than one currency "for the first time". But the language in the agreement is vague, speaking of the EU facilitating "the coexistence between different perspectives". European Commission Chief Jean-Claude Juncker insisted that the deal did not include giving London a veto over eurozone issues.
  5. Competitiveness: Juncker has made improving EU competitiveness a priority so this area was less problematic, with the bloc agreeing to "enhance competitiveness" and take "concrete steps" to improve.

The fact David Cameron raised a number of concerns and these concerns have all been addressed is now creating a political precedent. Cameron has raised existential questions about EU’s future.

Here’s a list of concerns that could lead to more substantial demands for EU change:

Italy

Faced with burgeoning support for the euro-skeptic Five Star movement and pressure on the Italian budget, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s government is looking for euro-area countries to become much more deeply integrated, with greater flexibility over spending. Closer integration may eventually necessitate changes to the EU treaties.

Hungary

Prime Minister Viktor Orban is keen to roll back the EU’s oversight of or as he would have it, interference in domestic policy, from financial regulation to the strength of democracy. He has his eyes on the EU becoming a far looser free-trade area.

Poland

The Law and Justice party is likely to disrupt any attempt to bind the EU more tightly together while waving away any moves toward a common EU defense policy. In future there may even be attempts to reverse every nation’s legal obligation to join the euro.

Finland

The mainstream Finnish view of Europe is the polar opposite of the ambitions of eastern nations. If Finland is to push for reform, it may be to strengthen the centralized power of the European Commission above inter-governmental decision making. This would make it easier for the EU to punish countries that break spending rules, leaving Finnish taxpayers off the hook.

France

Le Pen mixes opposition to Europe as a close-knit union with antipathy toward foreigners having rights in France. Any influence she can bring to France’s EU policy could have far-reaching consequences. And if she doesn’t, France’s more mainstream leaders still have an eye on binding the euro zone more closely together.

Denmark

The Danish view of the EU is similar to the U.K.’s and with Britain having now won a greater control of welfare payments for migrants the Danes are supportive.

Spain

The UK deal is giving hope to separatists who see it shows the EU is becoming more flexible. Cameron’s deal shows the EU has the capacity to come up with proposals so that political reality can be accommodated.

 

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