COUNTER-ATTACK

For several weeks, Russian air forces have been violating the airspace of NATO member countries such as Poland, Romania, and Estonia, sometimes with drones, sometimes with fighter jets. The situation is very serious. Putin is currently testing NATO's resolve and seeking to identify potential weaknesses. These are targeted provocations aimed at destabilizing the West. Putin's strategic objective is to divide and weaken NATO. The first signs are already being seen: while Eastern European countries are calling for a stronger response to violations of their airspace, NATO members in Western Europe are seeking to avoid any escalation.

The risk is that a disagreement could turn into a real rift. For example, if Italian fighter jets, as part of NATO Air Policing, were to shoot down a Russian aircraft in Estonian airspace because it posed a threat, it would ultimately be Italy, not Estonia, that made the decision. The Italian government would have to assess whether it wanted to take responsibility for the death of a Russian pilot. This situation provides Putin with an ideal opportunity to sow divisions within the alliance. The decision to shoot down is not made by NATO, but by the respective national government. In August, Italy took command of NATO Air Policing in the Baltic states for a period of four months. Italian pilots escorted the Russian MiGs out of NATO airspace in Estonia. The alliance has its own rules of engagement, but each member state retains its own. The decision to use lethal force therefore remains the responsibility of individual countries.

Sweden has threatened, as a last resort, to shoot down the Russian planes itself. No country has the right to violate Swedish airspace. Why have there been no airspace violations in Sweden, Finland, or Germany so far? Because Putin targets the weakest and most vulnerable countries, which he seeks to isolate. Other NATO members are more afraid of escalation if they shoot down a manned Russian aircraft. This hesitation benefits Russia.

The risk of not shooting down a Russian fighter jet would be greater than the risk of shooting one down, as NATO would then demonstrate its weakness, which Putin could exploit on multiple levels.

In the short term, Putin is expected to test NATO's resolve in the face of his threat. Putin generally acts rationally, and so far, NATO has set too few limits for him. He has recognized this and taken advantage of it.

So it could be that a NATO pilot will soon receive an order to shoot down a Russian fighter jet entering allied airspace. Russia doesn't respond to friendly calls; it only understands firmness. What NATO pilots can and cannot do is defined by the Rules of Engagement. NATO should strengthen them to increase its deterrent capability. This is the crucial question. Putin is currently testing the loopholes in NATO's Rules of Engagement: his planes can enter allied airspace and fly for a few kilometers before being intercepted. The next day, they can do it again.

As long as Russian aircraft do not pose an immediate threat, for example by preparing an attack, NATO cannot resort to lethal force. Repeated overflights of Russia show that NATO's deterrence is currently failing. Stricter rules of engagement should be established. Clearer responses, lower thresholds for the use of force. This, of course, also depends on the mission. NATO's Air Policing follows different rules of engagement than Operation Eastern Sentry, which was launched in response to airspace violations in Poland. But if NATO limits itself to words, there remains a risk that Putin will see this as a weakness and prepare to escalate the conflict.

Europe urgently needs to invest in modern air defense and anti-drone systems. While NATO already struggles to manage a few drones, it's hard to imagine what would happen if entire swarms entered its airspace.

Note

First Poland, Romania, Estonia, then Norway and Denmark. Drone incursions of unidentified origin have been multiplying since the beginning of September on European territory. While all eyes are on Russia, it firmly denies all accusations, even though Russian aircraft have entered the airspace of certain NATO member countries. These episodes of incursion revive old memories of the Cold War, when aircraft came to "test the air zones" of NATO or the USSR. It is becoming increasingly clear that Moscow is testing us, testing the unity of Europe and NATO. We can arrive, with almost certainty, at attributing some of these attacks to Russia", which would reflect Vladimir Putin's desire to weaken our solidarity and to see if European and NATO unity is maintained.

Concerns are being felt, and with them, discussions about possible responses are in full swing. In the event of a confrontation with Poland or Estonia, some members of the Atlantic Alliance could fear escalation and decide that they should not risk going to war with Russia, a position that would prove counterproductive, since it is precisely the unity of NATO countries that can deter the Russian head of state.

It is important to show that we are not warmongers, but that we cannot allow Putin to play this game. The Atlantic Alliance has declared itself ready to use all military means at its disposal.

The European Union remains rather united. With Hungary and Slovakia, which, while they may be "indulgent" towards the Kremlin, "have understood" that they should not "go too far in distancing themselves from the European consensus", because these two territories depend on "the economic solidarity" of the EU member states.