Most of the major factors that could lead to a global conflagration are currently present. The war in Ukraine could escalate and become even more internationalized in the next few months; and if the United States and NATO go to war with Russia, other authoritarian regimes may take advantage of the situation to attack America’s allies if not America itself.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to substantial geopolitical realignments, most notably a hostile polarization between a block of the United States and its democratic allies in Europe and the Pacific in contraposition to an emboldened authoritarian axis constituted by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. With the Ukrainian War as background, hostilities between Russia and NATO, China and Taiwan, North and South Korea, and Israel and Iran have intensified.

As of today, the War in Ukraine is limited to Russian forces combating Ukrainian troops; but an increasing number of nations have taken sides, directly aiding either country. The United States alone has already funneled over $100 billion in aid to Ukraine, the bulk of it weapons, armored vehicles, ammunition and technical military assistance. Another 42 nations have provided varying degrees of military support, with Cambodians even training Ukrainians in land mine clearance.

Several countries are either considering or calling for deployment of fighter planes. In the skies over Ukraine Turkish-made drones are fighting Iranian-made Russian drones.

Now we see a sharp increase in international tensions. Each development bring us closer to the possibility of world war; combined, they increase those chances exponentially.

If World War 3 starts, the world will be divided into three groups. The US and Russia will stand face to face in it. Some countries will support the US, while others will stand by Russia. The third group in this war will be those countries, which have some interests with the countries of the above two groups, but they don’t want war. Yet unwillingly war will be imposed on them too.

1.The first group will include Western liberal and capitalist countries on one side. The US, Canada, England, Japan, Australia and some European countries will be part of it. South Korea will also be part of the same group because the US has helped them from time to time.

2. The second group will include Russia. Belarus, Iran, Syria, Venezuela and North Korea. China is likely to be part of this group. The reason behind that would be ‘China’s attempt to bring itself forward as a superpower instead of the US’.

3. The third group will consist of developing countries. A country which has proved to be challenge for developed countries can lead this group. It will include India and other Asian countries. South America and Arab countries can also be part of this group. They will try to stop the war.

Recent Alliances

Three alliances of relatively recent origin are essentially military alliances aimed at containing increasing Chinese influence. The USA was the driving force for all these three alliances.

  1. QUAD (USA, Japan, Australia, and India as members): A stark reality has dawned on military strategists worldwide: China cannot be contained unless India is part of the alliance. India’s unique position on the globe is India’s strength. India’s active participation in QUAD merits a look into it. QUAD is a military alliance with three other nations who have consistently opposed India’s stand on two vital issues: Jammu and Kashmir and India going nuclear. Geography enables India to not only protect its interest in the Indian Ocean but also control the traffic through the most critical waterway on the globe. A threat, if any, will develop from ports in Pakistan. Four important Pakistani ports, Jiwani, Gwadar, Pasni, and Ormara, will pose a danger if Pakistan allows the Navies of Indian adversaries to operate. However, all four ports are within the IAF range and can be neutralized. The USA attempts to use the ‘Indian Shoulder’ to contain China.  
  2. AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, and USA as members) The formation of AUKUS and the supply of nuclear submarines by the USA to Australia  has also sown the seeds of the Third World War, which may be inadvertent
  3. CHIP 4 (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and USA).

Global Flashpoints

  • Russia-Ukraine standoff:  Russia-USA and NATO standoff is the most explosive issue currently. The Russia-Ukraine war has now turned into Russia vs. NATO and the USA.
  • Iran-Israel conflict over Iran’s nuclear capability: Israel will no longer wait and take appropriate action to prevent Iran from producing weapon-grade Uranium. Iran will retaliate, resulting in US assistance to Israel, thus expanding the spectrum of war.
  • Chinese threat to Taiwan: Repeated incursion in Taiwanese territory by large formations of PLAAF fighters/bombers is not only for the show of force but also for collecting Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) for a possible strike. Taiwan Air Force strike elements are spread over four bases. An airborne assault by China to neutralize these four air bases cannot be ruled out in conjunction with an amphibious assault on western shores.
  • Belligerent attitude of North Korea: Continuous testing of various SSMs (incl ICBM class) is a concern. China continues to support North Korea.
  • Russian and US military presence in the Middle East: The Middle East is still burning. US forces are still in Syria.

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