GREECE: DEAL OR NO DEAL ?

1. Option 1: No deal. Greece defaults on IMF and ECB repayments. ECB pulls plug on emergency bank assistance leading to run on Greek banks, capital controls and potential Grexit.
2. Option 2: Greece agrees reform deal with creditors at last minute and avoids default staying in Euro.
3. Option 3: No deal reached but both sides paper over cracks and Greece stays in Euro for now. Creditors find a way of releasing part of the €7.2bn remaining in the bailout to prevent a Grexit.
4. Option 4: European officials agree to extend the eurozone part of the bailout to March 2016 which would give more time for a reform deal to be agreed and synchronise the loans with the IMF's bailout timetable.

Next 3 months

• In June Greece owes € 6.74 billion (€ 1.5 billion to the IMF and € 5.2 billion in short term bills
• In July Greece owes € 6.95 billion ( € 452 million to the IMF, € 2 billion in short term bills and € 3.5 billion to the ECB)
• In August Greece owes € 5.7 billion (€ 2.4 billion in short term bills and € 3.2 billion to the ECB).

Greek debt talks: Main sticking points

• Greece will not accept cuts to pension payments or public sector wages, saying two-thirds of pensioners are either below or near the poverty line.
• International creditors want pension spending cut by 1% of GDP- it accounts for 16% of Greek GDP. They say their target is early retiremengt not individual pensions.
• EU officials say Greece has agreed to budget surplus targets of 1% of GDP this year, followed by 2% in 2016 and 3.5% by 2018. Greece says nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
• Creditors also want a wider VAT base. Greece says it will not allow extra VAT on medicine and electricity bills.
• Greece complains creditors focus on increasing taxes instead of cracking down on tax evasion. IMF is concerned Athens is not offering credible reforms.