Military tension is building up among Greece, Turkey and Israel as Cyprus has started exploratory drilling for gas offshore in the face of threats from Ankara. All three have placed their air and sea forces in a state of preparedness along with the Cypriot army.

Turkey has placed itself into a corner:

  • If Turkey orders its naval and.air units to strike the American rig installed by Texas-based firm Noble Energy, it will have to take the consequences possibly of a confrontation with the U.S., Israel, Greece and Cyprus
  • If Turkey does nothing, or nothing more than a token drilling off the Turkish side of the island, it will loose face as a country unable to bak up its threats
  • Third option: Turkey could vent its ire on Israel.

Of course, the EU sides with Cyprus and defends the island's sovereign right to exploit its natural resources.

There is no question that the most likely arena for a potential clash of arms in the Mediterranean is offshore Cyprus and it is most likely to evolve into a sea and air confrontation involving Turkey, Greece, Cyprus and Israel.

This means no accession of Turkey to the EU. This means no resolution of the Cyprus problem. This means instability for  the entire region.  For certain the U.S. and Russia will not stay on the side and will defend the island. Let's hope that in the end reason will prevail. 


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