EC FORECAST NEGATIVE GROWTH FOR 9 EU COUNTRIES IN 2012

The European Commission is forecasting a negative growth for 9 EU countries in 2012. Belgium (-0.1%); Cyprus (-0.5%); Greece (-4.4%); Hungary (-0.1%); Italy (-1.3%); Netherlands (-0.9%); Portugal (-3.3%); Slovenia (-0.1%) and Spain (-1.0%).

Technically, BELGIUM, ITALY, NETERLANDS, GREECE AND PORTUGAL are now in recession.

5 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR PUTIN'S NEXT PRESIDENCY

The general assumption is that Putin will win the presidential election on 4 March 2012. But Russian's expectations about the aftermath vary greatly. Five alternative scenarios are possible.

Scenario 1:  Russia's economy and society have outgrown the country's obsolete political system and the country will experience a peaceful and gradual democratic breakthrough--evolution rather than, revolution. Putin's power will dwindle away, and a full democratic transition will occur within two or three years.

COUNTRIES WITH AT LEAST 4% AND ABOVE GDP GROWTH RATES IN 2012

The following countries will show a 4% and above GDP growth rate in 2012. They are the countries that should capture increased attention in the next 2 years.

  1. Asia: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Hong Kong, Pakistan, Thailand and Singapore
  2. Central and South America: Argentina, Peru and Colombia. (Brazil will only show a 2.7% GDP growth rate in 2012)
  3. Africa: Nigeria
  4. Europe: No one country except Turkey

 

A REPEAT OF HISTORY ?

France... faced a dreadful politial and economic climate along with frustration, division, and disillusionment among its people. The economic situation was terrible as well as business and finance being very limited. France was deeply divided which caused frustration and commotion throughout the country. The people of France were extremely frustrated and disillusioned. France was greatly in need for a new leader who would escape them from their depressing situation and carry France forward. The French were severely divided which caused aggravation and disorder throughtout France.

THE CHALLENGE OF MANAGING GOVERNMENT RELATIONS IN INDIA

India today is a trillion dollar market with an enviable rate of GDP growth. India's economy is fuelled by a combination of a large services sector, a strong and diversified manufacturing base and a significant agricultural sector that continues to provide a framework for the growth of the domestic economy. The country's resilience in weathering the recent global downturn and financial crisis has made governments, policy-makers, economists, corporate houses and fund managers believe that India can play a significant recovery of the global economy in the months and years ahead.

AALEP CHAIR INVITED AS GUEST LECTURER BY THE GRADUATE INSTITUTE (GI) IN GENEVA

AALEP Chair- M. Christian D. de Fouloy was invited on 10 February by the Geneva-based Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies(GI) to deliver a presentation on Lobbying in the United States of America within the framework of the Executive Certificate "Advocacy in International Affairs".

ASEM 9 AND AEBF TO BE HELD THIS YEAR IN LAOS

The 9th ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting Summit) will be held in Ventiane, Laos on 5-6 Novmber 2012. ASEM 9 will gather the leaders of 48 ASEM partners to share their thoughts and exchange views on current and global issues of common interest. The ASEM Dialogue addresses political, economic and cultural issues with the objective of strengthening the relationship between the two regions. ASEM 9 will chart out the future direction for ASEM cooperation under the theme "Friends for Peace, Partners for Prosperity".

MANAGING PUBLIC AFFAIRS WITHOUT A COMPASS

Many global companies are flying blind when it comes to managing their in-country public affairs activities. According to the Washington-based Public Affairs Council, most country managers who are business heads in a particular host country, lack consistent public affairs training. Yet they are often responsible for the public affairs function.

WORLD AIRLINES SET TO FIGHT THE EU EMISSION TRADING SCHEME

Over 30 countries including India, Russia, China, Indonesia, USA, Brazil etc. will meet in Moscow on 21st and 22nd February to take decisions on what retaliatory measures could be taken against the EU if it insists on imposing the carbon tax on non-EU flights as there is a growing agreement on the matter. Already China has made it clear that its airlines will refuse the pay the charges called for.

RUSSIA'S TWO-TRACK POLICY OF POWER

Russia needs the strength of the West and Western expertise to keep the country relatively modern and strong. But at the same time it can be strongonly with a consolidated government, economy and security service.

The first Russian weakness is that it is surrounded by great powers from which it is not insulated by geographic barriers. The second weakness is that its population is comprised of numerous ethnic groups, not all of which are happy with centralized Kremlin rule. A strong hand is the only means to consolidate the country internally while repelling outsiders.

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