THE STAND OF POPULIST PARTIES ON THE EU

Populist parties are gaining momentum in countries across Europe. As voter turnout decreases, the influence of large mainstream parties is diminishing and the party structure is fragmenting. The profiles of the various populist movements in Europe are fundamentally different. They differ not only in their messages and their political affiliations to the left or the right and whether they take a moderate or hard line; their direct influence after election results and their potential for influence in the future through agenda setting are also significantly different. The greatest consensus among the parties is in the rejection of further steps towards European integration. A large majority of the parties is critical of the current situation in the eurozone.Therefore, an orderly dissolution of or change to the monetary union is supported across the parties – together with calls for tighter immigration regulations.There is less agreement on the call to completely disband the joint federation of states that is the EU, along with its institutions. Despite successes at national level, no noteworthy influence has been wielded by Eurosceptic parties at the European level to date. However, populist movements could still indirectly extend their influence over European politics in the future – even if they are not coordinated. Populist movements unite more commonly against something rather than for something. Their obstructive potential comes to the fore in their role in opposition, above all at a national level, and can therefore harden the stance of the respective government in intergovernmental collaboration at European level. Populist parties could shape European politics in future by blocking progress in particular in political areas that require a wide consensus – and without actually pursuing this objective in an explicitly coordinated way. The effects of the rise of populist parties are already noticeable today. In many countries, established parties are being forced to follow a course aligned more strongly with alleged national interests. In this unclear overall situation, some countries are not using the head start given them by the European bailout programmes and the ECB to implement reforms in good time and to the full extent. Ultimately, the obstructive potential is high, even with regard to the required further development of the institutions of the eurozone.

Austria: Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs- FPÖ (Freedom Party of Austria)

The views and representatives of the party are firmly established in the country’s political structures and public and published debate in the country. It is generally not seen as an outsider. The further potential influence that the FPÖ has comes from its ability to take clear positions and to use stronger civic participation as a strategic tool for individual issues that do not reflect the majority opinion. This is particularly clear in the party's position on Europe. Current polls indicate that support for the EU is very high in Austria: there is a lot of support for the euro, at 69%, and more than 50% of those surveyed do not believe that Austria would be better equipped for the future if it were not a member of the EU. In comparison with the majority of the population, the FPÖ takes a more sceptical view. It rejects the euro bailout policy entirely and is in favour of an independent economic and monetary policy that is linked either with the return of the national currency or with a currency union among national economies of similar strength. However, the FPÖ resolves the discrepancy between party opinion and public opinion by linking its Eurosceptic positions predominantly to the call for a referendum. This would then enable the population to vote again independently of how they decide to vote at the general election. This strategy enables the party to represent positions that win it media attention and at the same time avoid scaring potential voters who would vote differently on individual issues.The FPÖ aligns itself with the sensitivities of the people on the issue of immigration in particular, which is an issue for 20% of Austrians surveyed. More than half of those questioned have a negative attitude towards immigration from non-EU states. As far as immigration from EU member states is concerned, only 37% have a negative attitude. This is expressed in the degree of openness of the FPÖ. It calls for strict limits on immigration from Muslim states in particular. Even though the FPÖ calls into question the freedom of movement from certain states even within the EU, it still wants to make an exit from the Schengen agreement contingent on a referendum. The FPÖ also calls for a referendum on TTIP. In particular, the party is critical of the secret negotiations on the agreement. This criticism is coupled with a principally sceptical stance on globalisation.

Denmark: Danish People's Party

The Danish People's Party is opposed to further integration in the EU when it comes to social policy, immigration, culture, fiscal and monetary policy, education, gender policy etc. The Danish Party sees the EU as a fragmented and dysfunctional family. It believes Denmark should resist any further centralization and concentration of powers in Brussels: Less European Commission, European Parliament and EU Court. It favours the reinstatement of border control.

Finland: Finns Party

The potential influence of the Finns Party stems from cleverly connecting moderate Eurosceptic positions to national concerns. The Finns Party therefore takes a strong line on issues relating to Europe. With an eye on the national budget, the Finns Party primarily objects to the euro bailout programme and is critical of any form of redistribution within the EU budget. The party rejects any form of joint liability of the eurozone countries for their respective national debt. In general, only a small proportion of the population in Finland is sceptical of its country's membership of the EU: 61% of people surveyed did not agree that Finland would be better equipped for the future without the EU. 75% support the euro. The Finns Party thus formulates its demands with corresponding caution. The party criticises the country's net payments to the EU budget and recommends only preparation for an exit from the eurozone and EU in accordance with the Constitution.  Another key demand is for referendums — both at a local level and concerning further transfer of powers to the EU. The limited openness of the Finns Party becomes particularly apparent when we look at immigration policies. The party demands that immigration be strictly linked to a work permit and the resulting tax obligation. Immigration that is not work-related is to be limited by minimising financial incentives and by adopting a more restrictive policy on reunifying family members from non-EU states. It is on this last point in particular that the Finns Party taps into the inclinations of the Finnish population: 51% have a negative view towards immigration from non-EU states (41% positive), but 76% have a positive view towards immigration from other EU member states. The Finns Party welcomes free trade, but would not support TTIP without national review.

France:  Front National- FN

With regard to Europe, there is a clear disparity between public opinion and the party's position. While the FN clearly campaigns for an exit from the euro and EU, 67% of the French support the single currency. Only 25% of the French are of the opinion that France would be better equipped for the future outside of the EU. The FN clearly rejects openness. It calls for the French economy to be protected with protectionist customs policies. It thus also rejects TTIP. The FN cleverly links the problem of high unemployment with the problem of immigration. It calls for the number of immigrants per year to be strictly limited and defined based on professional skills. The FN is also in favour of incentives for businesses so that they give preferential treatment to employees who are French nationals. The party has thus aligned itself perfectly to the values given by the French people in polls; only 35% were positive towards immigration from outside the EU, while 58% were negative. However, there are differences: while the FN is also open to the idea of an exit from the Schengen Agreement as a means of controlling migration movements within the EU, half of the French people welcome immigration from EU states (51%)

Germany : Alternative für Deutschland-AfD (Alternative for Germany)

With regard to Europe, the opposing stance of the AfD has become more moderate. The AfD argues against the euro bailout policy and is in favour of an orderly dissolution of the eurozone. It is calling for the creation of smaller, more stable currency unions or the re-introduction of national currencies. However, the AfD has not articulated this demand too loudly in recent times – in the light of support by 74% of the German population for the euro, this seems understandable. EU and EMU membership are not rejected in principle. However, the AfD does recommend reforms to reduce the level of bureaucracy and to increase transparency at the EU level. The party is calling for legislative powers to be returned to national parliaments.  The degree of openness of the AfD is moderate due to its immigration policy. With regard to EU member states, it considers stopping uncontrolled immigration in the German welfare system to be absolutely essential. It is calling for immigration from non-EU states to be subject to tighter regulations and to be managed according to labour market requirements. Here, the AfD favours a points system for qualifications in line with the Canadian model – a concept that has already been discussed a number of times in Germany. However, immigration from EU member states is viewed more positively than that from non-EU states . The AfD is generally open to free trade. However, it rejects TTIP as the negotiations are being conducted at the European and not at the national level

Greece: Syriza

With regard to Europe, Syriza is likely to continue to refrain from calling for an exit from the eurozone or the EU as, despite the conditions of the bailout programme, which are generally viewed negatively, 63% of Greeks are still in favour of the country remaining in the eurozone and 54% do not share the opinion that Greece's future would be better served outside of the EU. Even with government responsibilities, Syriza addresses topics flexibly and almost erratically. On the other hand, Syriza is clearly committed to a changed role for the ECB. It calls on the ECB to support states in financing public investments. Syriza has a high degree of openness towards immigrants. It wants to relax the migration policy and improve the provision for migrants. At the same time, Syriza is calling for the abolition of the Dublin II Regulation so that asylum seekers arriving in Greece can be reallocated to other EU states. By contrast, Syriza does not want to ratify the free trade agreement with the US, thereby exerting its newly gained influence at European level.

Hungary: Jobbik

According to Jobbik, 'Europe is in crisis, Europe is sick' and in order to address this challenge, Jobbik has proposed a three stage secnario. First, Hungary must conduct a social debate on the country's relationship with the European Union, including the EU treaties and its presence as a Member State. The discussion process should include a debate in the Parliament. In Jobbik's view, political parties, NGOs and all social groups must be given a chance to voice their opinions regarding the EU. As a second step, Jobbik proposes to identify the announcement and implementation of the claim for amending the accession treaty and the EU's treaties. The third stage would involve a referendum which would allow Hungarian citizens to decide how they wish to uphold the country's EU membership in the future. Jobbik holds the view that the sickness of Europe is the result of constantly aggravating institutional, structural, political and economic crisis, the gap between the living standards of Central Eastern European post-communist countries and those of the Western ones, the utter failure of multiculturalism and immigrant integration, the Greek crisis which clearly showed the vulnerability of the Eurozone, and the UK situation, which has opened the door for a dabte of the referendum on EU membership.

Italy: Five Star Movement (M5S)

With regard to Europe, party leader Beppe Grillo is calling for referendums on leaving the eurozone and EU.  As far as openness is concerned, the position of M5S is not clear. While Grillo, as party leader, rejects further immigration, some M5S delegates recently tabled a motion in parliament intended to abolish the criminal offence of illegal immigration. M5S has also not definitively stated its position on TTIP. The party enjoys an extremely high level of public attention, above all through social media. Beppe Grillo's blog is one of the most widely read blog in Italy.

Italy: Northern League (NL)

LN opposes current efforts to deepen European integration. The party is calling for a referendum on the euro and wants to prevent any further relinquishing of powers to the EU, as this compromises any efforts towards autonomy. The party demonstrates a limited level of openness, as is clear from its stance on immigration and trade policies. The LN campaigns above all against immigration from African and Muslim countries, and calls for immigration powers to be returned to the nation states. It wants stricter regulations on foreign trade — not least to protect European products. It therefore also rejects the free trade agreement with the US.

The Italian populists benefit from selected issues such as Euroscepticism and immigration policy. With the exception of Cyprus, support for the euro is the lowest in the eurozone in Italy at 54%. Accordingly, the Italian populist parties  are calling for a referendum on the common currency at the very least. The positions of LN and Forza Italia (FI) on immigration policies are also very similar, whereas the position of M5S cannot be so clearly defined. Of those surveyed, more than half reject immigration from both EU and non-EU states .

Netherlands: Partij voor de Vrijheid-PVV (Party for Freedom)

With regard to the potential influence of the PVV in the future, there are definitely recognisable discrepancies between the core manifesto and the inclinations of the general public. This applies in particular to issues relating to Europe. The PVV actively campaigns for an exit from the EU and eurozone. Instead, it wants the national currency to be re-introduced and bilateral agreements such as those in Switzerland to regulate relationships with the EU. At 76%, however, the support of the Dutch for the euro is currently significantly above the EMU average of 71%. 77% of the Dutch people surveyed reject the opinion that the Netherlands would be better equipped for the future outside the EU. The PVV is open only with regard to trade. It values free trade within the Single European Market. As far as the free trade agreement with the US is concerned, however, the PVV has stated that it is against entering into negotiations with the US. Otherwise, the particular hallmark of PVV is its warnings about the "Islamisation" of the Netherlands and immigration from Eastern Europe. Resentment towards Muslim citizens is articulated in particularly strong terms. The party thus addresses the 50% of the Dutch who are against increased immigration from non-EU states.

Poland: Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc-PiS (Law & Justice)

The PiS is a right-wing conservative party. The party supports integration with the European Union on terms beneficial for Poland. It supports economic integration and tightening the cooperation in areas of energetic security and military, but is skeptical about closer political integration. The PiS welcomes the principles of solidarity and mutual assistance, which guarantees that all states remain sovereign and retain their own models of development in line with their own national interests. The PiS is against the formation of a European superstate or federation. PiS is in favour of strong political and military alliance of Poland with the United States.

Spain: Podemos Movement

On topics concerning Europe, the party is cautious: it does not call for an exit from the eurozone or the EU, as Podemos sees the national problems primarily as home-grown. This is an appropriate position in view of the fact that 66% of the Spanish people do not believe that Spain would be better off outside of the EU. However, like Syriza in Greece, Podemos is also in favour of renegotiating the national debt. Podemos is committed to a realignment of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, which it believes should in future pursue growth and employment objectives. Podemoss rejects the austerity and reform policies and calls for the reforms that have been put in place since the outbreak of the crisis to be reversed. Podemos demonstrates a high degree of openness with regard to immigration in particular. It calls for an improvement in the rights of legal and illegal immigrants. On the subject of TTIP, Podemos remains vague – the party calls for a renegotiation of the agreement and warns of risks, although they do not go into these in any further detail.

Sweden: Sverigedemokraterna-SD (The Sweden Democrats)

The Sweden Democrats describes itself as social conservative with a nationalist foundation, but it has been characterized by others as far-right, right-wing populist, national-conservative, and anti-immigration. The SD rejects joining the EMU, is opposed to the accession of Turkey to the EU and wants to renegotiate Swedish membership of the European Union.

United Kingdom: United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)

In the United Kingdom, Euroscepticism tends to be more widespread than in other European countries. This is also reflected in the party landscape, in which the right-wing conservative United Kingdom Independent Party (UKIP), with its calls to leave the EU, displays the strongest level of Euroscepticism. However, the party's influence on established parties is already visible. Prime Minister David Cameron has announced that the referendum on membership of the EU will be brought forward.  The potential influence of UKIP stems from its sceptical stance towards Europe, which allows UKIP to score points with the British public: more than 40% think that the country would be better equipped for the future outside the EU. Nevertheless, according to a poll in March 2015, 57% would vote for remaining in the EU, and only 21% of those surveyed currently support leaving the EU.  At the same time, with calls for tighter immigration regulations, UKIP hits a nerve with the British electorate. This is clearly spelled out by UKIP's statements on the free trade agreement with the US. The limited degree of openness also becomes evident in the call for tighter immigration laws. The party wants these to ensure that British employees do not lose their jobs to immigrants and that the national welfare system is not overwhelmed. It calls for uncontrolled immigration to be curtailed by extending the existing points system to EU citizens. More than half of those polled are critical of immigration from both EU and non-EU states. This differentiates the British from citizens of other EU member states who generally have a more positive view of immigration from the EU than from nonEU states. With regard to trade relationships, UKIP is in favour of a free trade zone with the Commonwealth of Nations. The party has not yet made a specific statement on the free trade agreement with the US. However, the clear call for an exit from the EU implies that UKIP would pursue – if anything – a bilateral agreement with the US.

Populist Parties in the EU/Average poll/election results

• Austria: Freedom Party of Austria 31.2%
• Denmark: Danish People’s Party 21.1%
• Finland: True Finns 10.3%
• France: National Front 27.6%
• Germany : AfD 9.8%
• Greece: Syriza 31% Golden Dawn: 9.1%
• Hungary : Jobbik 24%
• Ireland : Sinn Fein 19.3%
• Italy: Five Star 27.2%, Northern League 15.2%
• Netherlands: Freedom Party 24%
• Poland: PiS 39%
• Portugal: Left Bloc 10.2%, Communist Party of Portugal 8.3%
• Spain: Podemos 20.7%
• Sweden: Sweden Democrats 12.9%
• United Kingdom: UKIP 12.4%