WHAT A HOFER PRESIDENCY WOULD LOOK LIKE ?

On 4 December, Austria will elect a new President  again. If Mr. Hofer is elected the most plausible scenario is that Mr. Hofer  will continue doing what he does best: be moderate in appearance, conciliatory in speech and occasionally criticise government policy (especially on immigration) to show that he does care about the concerns of “the people”.

A moderate and, so to speak, well-behaved FPÖ President would be a great way of signalling electability to those who are still sceptical, consistent with the message Mr. Hofer delivered so well in his presidential campaign. It would lend credibility to the FPÖ’s self-image as a reliable centre-right party with the competence to exercise political power in the name of society as a whole. This makes imaginable a comfortable victory of the FPÖ which consistently has approval ratings higher than those of all other parties in next general election in 2018. And then Austria would not only have a populist right-wing President, but also a populist right-wing government.

Despite the fact that presidents serve a largely ceremonial function in the Austrian government, they have the power to dissolve the legislature and to call early parliamentary elections, something Mr. Hofer has said he might do if elected.

No matter what happens with its domestic politics, Austria's position in Europe will dictate its actions. Austria has traditionally been a Central European power. The former Austro-Hungarian empire under the Habsburg monarchy was spread over a large part of Central Europe, comprising present Austria and Hungary as well as Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Croatia and parts of present Poland, Romania, Italy, Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia and Montenegro. During the Cold War, Austria played a similarly strategic role. After World War II, the country, like Germany, was divided into U.S., British, French and Russian zones occupied and governed by the Allies. But Austria regained its independence in 1955 by declaring its permanent neutrality and promising not to join any military alliances. This enabled Vienna to position itself as a bridge between the Soviet bloc and the West during the Cold War. At the same time, Austria's neutrality, unlike that of nearby Switzerland, allowed it the flexibility to join the European Union and NATO's Partnership for Peace Program in 1995.

Though Vienna's influence on European affairs has diminished since the end of Habsburg rule, Austria still considers itself a link between Western and Eastern Europe, as well as between Europe and Russia, which supplies around half of the natural gas it consumes. The country remains an important meeting point for world leaders to this day: International organizations as diverse as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are headquartered in Vienna. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Austria has also tried to restore its influence over the territories in Central Europe and over the Balkans, which were once part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Austrian companies most notably banks expanded their business into those areas after the Soviet bloc and Yugoslavia crumbled. Austrian companies together with their 20,000 joint ventures support the development of a business infrastructure and financial markets. Austria's focus on the Central European Region is also mirrored in the flow of Foreign Direct Investment. More than 50% of Austria's Foreign Dierct Investments go to the CEE region and Austria is one of the most important investors in the region having created 400,000 jobs. Austria is the biggest foreign investor in Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. In Slovenia, nearly 50% of all direct investments come from Austrian companies. In the Czech Republic and Hungary, Austria is among the top 5 foreign investors. In Poland and Russia, Austrian investments are significantly higher than the respective country's economic importance overall.

As an export-oriented country, Austria supports the European Union as long as it creates opportunities for trade and investment. Having backed the European Union's expansion toward Central and Eastern Europe in the mid-2000s, Austria continues to advocate accession for countries in the Western Balkans, which would create new business for its firms. But the country is not a founding member of the European project, and its view is closer to those of fellow Central European countries such as Poland and Hungary, which support free trade but are reluctant to relinquish sovereignty to technocrats in Brussels. Many of Austria's politicians not only in the FPO, but also in more moderate parties think the Continental bloc should be an economic and not a political union.

Nonetheless, Austria is neither willing nor prepared to leave the European Union, regardless of the FPO's growing popularity. Opinion polls show that roughly two-thirds of Austrians want to remain in the bloc, almost the same percentage that voted in a 1994 referendum to join the European Union. In light of that figure, even the FPO, which campaigned against EU accession and, until recently, had promised to hold a referendum on Austria's eurozone membership, has toned down its Euroskepticism of late. Mr. Hofer recently asserted that Austria should hold a referendum on its EU membership only if Turkey joins the bloc (which will not happen anytime soon) or if more sovereignty is transferred to Brussels (which seems unlikely in the current political environment). His suggestion reveals that the FPO is trying to court moderate voters without abandoning the strong anti-EU platform that endeared it to independents.

But politics are not the only thing keeping Austria in the European Union. Economically, the country has a lot at stake in the bloc. Cross-border trade accounts for six of every 10 euros that the country generates, making exports its primary means of wealth creation. Austria depends heavily on the European Union to buy the goods it exports, and it cannot afford to lose access to large markets such as Germany and Italy. Even the end of the Schengen Agreement, which eliminates border controls in Europe, could hurt trade along the busy Alpine routes connecting the Austrian, Italian and German markets.

Austria, therefore, is unlikely to be among the vanguard of countries threatening to leave the European Union. However, Vienna could increase its say over political developments in the bloc by joining forces with its neighboring member states. Mr. Hofer recently called for greater cooperation with Slovenia, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Hungary all former subjects of the Austro-Hungarian Empire to better influence EU policy. But there are limits to this strategy. Because Slovenia and Croatia are small, weak countries that depend on EU funds and investment, they will be reluctant to confront Brussels. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic and Hungary are already members of another bloc, the Visegrad Group, and are more likely to cooperate with Austria as members of that group than to align behind Vienna's leadership individually. However, the countries' individual interests may complicate their efforts at collaboration. Austria's neutrality, for instance, would curb Vienna's participation in the plan to create a defense union in Europe, an idea Visegrad members support.

On its own, Austria cannot shape EU policy. But as opposition to the European Union grows among the country's electorate, Vienna may side with countries pushing for a more decentralized bloc based on intergovernmental cooperation rather than on supranational integration. Since the Brexit vote, EU Member States have been looking to form new alliances to influence the direction of the bloc. With few other viable options at its disposal, Austria is becoming more interested in joining forces with like-minded countries to make its voice heard.