WHEN WILL SPAIN HAVE A NEW GOVERNMENT?

The results in Spain’s December elections were, more or less, in line with what was expected: the Parliament is more diverse than ever. The mainstream political parties, Christian Democrats (Partido Popular – PP) and Social Democrats (Partido Socialista Obrera Español – PSOE) no longer dominate the political scene. The two-party (also called two-and-a-half party) system of Spain has been challenged by Podemos (‘We can’) and Ciudadanos (Citizens).

The Spanish citizens went to the ballot box on 20 December to elect their prospective government for four years. The participation rate was 73.20 per cent, beating the level of 2011, which was 68.94 per cent.

Results

PP: 28.72% 123 seats

PSOE/PSC: 22.01% 90 seats

Podemos: 12.67% 42 seats

C’s: 13.93% 40 seats

There are 350 seats in the Spanish Parliament

The ruling centre-right PP won the election with 28.71 per cent of the votes and 123 seats out of 350, while losing the absolute majority. Following a lingering period of economic hardship, austerity measures and a record-level of unemployment, the PP, remarkably, still ended up with the most votes. Nevertheless, this was the worst result achieved by any winning party in the history of democratic Spain.

How to form a government?

In this most fragmented parliament in Spanish history, 176 seats are needed to form a government. According to Article 99 of the Spanish Constitution of 1978, the King of Spain, Felipe IV,  meets with the leaders of each party represented, and then propose a candidate as President of Parliament. It is very likely that the first candidate will be the leader of the strongest party. If the majority is not qualified after two consecutive votes – first an absolute majority and then a simple majority, there will be a new candidate. This process started on January 13, 2016 when the Parliament was constituted, and may take at most two months. If the new government will not be formed and voted within that time frame, the Parliament will be dissolved and a snap election announced.

What are the possible scenarios?

A grand coalition in Spain is very unlikely. The leaders of PP and PSOE met shortly after the election and discarded this option very quickly, for now. Pedro Sánchez, the leader of the socialists, said he will not vote for Rajoy as President and he will try to form ‘a government of change’. In spite of his refusal, he is undergoing a certain pressure to abstain from voting and letting the PP govern with support of Ciudadanos. However, it is important to underline that if the PSOE supports the PP in order to maintain stability in the country, this could play in the hands of Podemos and lead to its own extinction in the mid/long term, as happened to PASOK in Greece.

When we look for ideological coalitions, a possible right wing coalition of PP and Ciudadanos does not qualify for the formation of a government. In addition, the leader of Ciudadanos claimed that his party is bound for a change in the country and would not sign up for any government with the PP. A left wing coalition of PSOE, Podemos and the United Left (IU) may suffer the same fate. In the formation of a coalition government, small nationalist parties will be the major players. In the meantime, the PP will dominate the Senate, the upper house of Spain’s Parliament, which means that important reforms will require a consensus anyway.

A left wing alliance is another possibility. However, the coalition of three left wing parties (PSOE, Podemos and the United Left) is only possible with the abstention of Ciudadanos or with the support of nationalist parties. The first scenario seems not viable because of the many disagreements between them. And the alliance of PSOE and Podemos depends on their respective attitude towards the future of Catalonia. Not only will the role of nationalist parties be key in this issue, but also the idea of each political party considering the future of Catalonia. While Podemos wants a referendum in which Catalans can decide on their destiny, the PSOE is opposed to ‘any attempt to break with the constitutional rule’. Catalonia is a red line for both political parties, which makes it a central issue.

A so-called ‘alliance of change’ is also possible: a PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos coalition. It could be a way to avoid a new election and not let Rajoy to be president. Of course, this is not an easy agreement either. Although Ciudadanos has declared its preference for the list most voted for – which is the PP – they could think about such an alliance, but only if Podemos changes its idea about Catalonia. Since Podemos has declared that the referendum on Catalonia’s independence is essential, a Ciudadanos – Podemos alliance seems hard to achieve. The PSOE is the only party who can try to negotiate this agreement, but its internal leadership problems affect its negotiation power.

Because a coalition based on ideology is not easy to form, it is time for imagination and negotiation. Since the leaders of Ciudadanos and Podemos have claimed that they will not enter a government that they are not heading, the formation of a coalition is very unlikely in general. Instead, we should think about a minority government with a negotiated support in Parliament. All these options seem equally difficult to realise. If no agreement can be reached, snap elections will be called. This scenario could benefit Podemos and the PP but it is difficult to predict results in a political climate that changes every day.

Conclusion

Spain is going through the biggest challenge of its democratic history. It is time to negotiate, foster the dialogue and find a way to govern the country. Notwithstanding the election results, it is evident that Spain continues to tackle familiar difficulties; unemployment, corruption and fraud and the economy – according to the latest surveys. All these problems, and definitely the issue of Catalonia, require a stable government to solve.

Spanish society wanted a political change and now it is time to find out whether Spanish politicians will be able to catch up with this expectation. The end of the two-party system opens the door to debate new issues. One of these issues is the reform of the electoral system. Podemos and Ciudadanos have proposed to change the current electoral system in order to get a more proportional one. Although these new political parties have achieved remarkable success in the last elections, it would have been even greater with another electoral system.

In addition, the future of Catalonia is a challenge that needs tackling. New regional elections are very likely to occur. Catalan society is divided between those who are for and those who are against independence from Spain. This critical question is also affecting national politics and it is a central issue in the negotiations to conclude alliances.

So, the final question is: will Spanish politicians make up their minds to sign a government agreement or will there be a snap election?