THE BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA FOR RUSSIAN SOCIETY

  1. The domestic system will become even more authoritarian;
  2. Repression will increase and the forces of conservatism will very much gain the upper hand;

FOUR WAYS IN WHICH THE CONFLICT MIGHT END

Scenario 1: Miracle on the Dnipro

17 AFRICAN COUNTRIES REFUSE TO CONDEMN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

The reputation of the Russia private military contractors' capability to contain violent extremism and ensure regime stability in Syria is one of the reasons why African States abstained from voting on the resolution condemning Russia invasion of Ukraine.

Within four years (2015 to 2019) Russia has concluded security bilateral agreements with 21 African countries.

THE RETURN OF RUSSIA TO A BACKWARD AND REPRESSIVE PLACE

Author: Max Boot

Putin's "barbaric" invasion of Ukraine is the culmination of more than two decades of "Sovietization" under Putin's regime.

HOW HAS PUTIN COUP-PROOFED HIS GOVERNMENT?

Over the past two decades, Putin and his allies have structured nearly every core element of the Russian state with an eye toward limiting threats to the regime. Putin has arrested or killed leading dissidents, instilled fear in the general public, and made the country’s leadership class dependent on his goodwill for their continued prosperity.

INCREASING RUSSIAN ACCESS TO INFORMATION

Russian journalists are not reporting on a war, or even an invasion or attack. The state requires them to label it a “ special operation”, designed to protect the country’s security in the face of an expanding Nato alliance. Any news organisations deviating from the government’s playbook have been ordered to close by Russian authorities. Meanwhile, access to independent sources of news online and across social media platforms have been significantly cut off by the Russian government.

THE CASE OF IRAN’S REFUSAL TO CONDEMN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

The reasons behind Iran’s refusal to condemn Russian aggression can be traced to Iran’s ties with Russia during the past few decades, its increasingly strained relationship with the West, and developments across the Middle East.

Generally speaking, Iran never condemns Russia’s foreign aggressions, but at the same time, never recognises the territories Moscow brings under control either ( 2008 Georgian war, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and eastern Ukraine.)

THE CASE OF INDIA’S REFUSAL TO CONDEMN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

The case of India’s refusal to condemn Russian aggression reflects New Delhi’s reliance on its Cold War ally for energy, weapons and support in conflicts with neighbors.

In the past, India depended on Soviet support and its veto power in the Security Council in its dispute over Kashmir with its longtime rival Pakistan.

THE CASE OF ALGERIA'S REFUSAL TO CONDEMN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

Algeria was among 35 nations to abstain in response to a resolution condemning Russia's "aggression against Ukraine" and demanding that Russia immediately withdraw its forces. Algeria's ambassador echoed that vote with a lukewarm statement promoting "efforts and diplomatic calls aiming at de-escalating the current situation and adopting dialogue."

THE CASE OF THE FIVE LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES REFUSING TO CONDEMN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

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