1. The majority in the next European Parliament is likely to back a continuation of the type of financial, logistical, and military aid that Western states have been approving for Kyiv since February 2022. However, there will be a larger number of MEPs (particularly in ID and among the non-attached MEPs) who are more sympathetic towards Russia. Furthermore, support for Ukraine in the rest of the parliament might also soften as national parties start to respond to the changing opinions of their voters, expressed by their votes in the European Parliament elections.
  2. On economic and monetary affairs and internal market and consumer protection there could be a significant shift to the right, as the EPP looks to partners to its right rather than to the S&D. The next parliament is likely to support more economic, fiscal, and regulatory freedom for member states voting against proposals from the commission to enforce common rules and instead siding with the growing group of national governments – such as those in Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden – which are pushing for less interference from Brussels in national economic, fiscal, and regulatory policies.
  3. Civil liberties and justice and home affairs, and environment may have to deal with populist right winning coalition. On civil liberties and justice and home affairs, this could have major implications for EU migration and asylum policies, where there is likely to be a majority in the European Parliament that supports very restrictive immigration policies and will seek to push the commission to reform the EU’s asylum policy framework to allow more discretion for member states and to limit any sharing of refugee allocations. This could also have implications for the EU’s efforts to enforce the rule of law. After June 2024 it is likely to be harder for the centrist and centre-left MEPs (in RE, S&D, G/EFA, the Left, and parts of EPP) to hold the line against the continued erosion of democracy, rule of law, and civil liberties in Hungary and any other member state that might head in that direction.
  4. The biggest policy implications of the 2024 European Parliament elections are likely to concern environmental policy.  The significant shift to the right in the new parliament will mean that an ‘anti-climate policy action’ coalition is likely to dominate. This would significantly undermine the EU’s Green Deal framework and the adoption and enforcement of common policies to meet the EU’s net zero targets.



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