EUROPEAN ORGANIZATIONS DECLARED UNDESIRABLE IN RUSSIA

  1. Open Russia Civic Movement, United Kingdom, April 27, 2017
  2. Open Russia, United Kingdom, April 27, 2017
  3. Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation, Romania, July 03, 2017
  4. European Platform for Democratic Elections, Germany, March 13, 2018
  5. International Elections Study Center, Lithuania, March 13, 2018
  6. People in Need, Czech Republic, November 12, 2019
  7. European Endowment for Democracy, Belgium, March 12, 2020
  8. European Falun Dafa Association, United Kingdom, July 21, 2020

WHAT THEY NEED TO DO BETTER

Ukraine

  • Fighting corruption
  • Law on staffing for the National Anti-Corruption Bureau
  • Law regulating lobbying in line with European standards, as part of an anti-oligarch action plan
  • Law addressing recommendations from the Venice Commission (an advisory body of the Council of Europe) in areas such as the language used by the state, media and education.

Moldova

EU ENLARGEMENT CHALLENGES

Author: Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow for Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND BALANCE OF POWER

  1. Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year
  2. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv.
  3. Russia is currently firing around 10,000 shells a day, compared to just 2,000 a day from the Ukrainian side.
  4. Russia is running artillery factories “24/7” on rotating 12-hour shifts. About 3.5 million Russians now work in the defense sector, up from somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million before the war.

THE NEXT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

  1. The majority in the next European Parliament is likely to back a continuation of the type of financial, logistical, and military aid that Western states have been approving for Kyiv since February 2022. However, there will be a larger number of MEPs (particularly in ID and among the non-attached MEPs) who are more sympathetic towards Russia. Furthermore, support for Ukraine in the rest of the parliament might also soften as national parties start to respond to the changing opinions of their voters, expressed by their votes in the European Parliament elections.

2024 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS FORECAST

  • The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and center-left and green parties losing votes and seats.
  • Anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden).

POTENTIAL WARNING SIGNS OF FOREIGN INTERFERENCE

People who undertake foreign interference activities may not be easily identifiable, and it may not be obvious they are acting on behalf of a foreign power.

These people seeking to conduct acts of foreign interference could attempt to create a sense of personal connection with, and obligation from, an individual which they can then use to coerce or influence decisions in their favor.

This is often done by engaging in activities to make targeted individuals feel a sense of obligation or indebtedness, such as providing:

RUSSIAN CERTAINTY OF NATO HOSTILITY

In Russian discourse, NATO’s front – including its talk of “fair democracy” and “human rights” and unfounded accusations towards Russia – constitutes a smokescreen hiding its ulterior motive of geopolitical gains; the US “rhetoric of moral values” is “only on the surface. “Real facts are hushed up” and “accusations made to divert attention”. Conflict is created from nothing by “instrumentalizing” and “speculating” in universal values. To Russia, NATO’s values are fake, but its hostility is real.

NATO FUNDING FOR DUMMIES

NATO is resourced through the direct and indirect contributions of its members. NATO’s common funds are composed of direct contributions to collective budgets and programs, which equate to only 0.3% of total Allied defense spending (around EUR 3.3 billion for 2023). These funds enable NATO to deliver capabilities and run the entirety of the Organization and its military commands.

THE TRUMP DISQUALIFICATION CASE IN FRONT OF THE U.S. SUPREME COURT

On February 8, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court will oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson- one of the most important constitutional cases in the U.S. history and the highest-profile election-related case since Bush v. Gore in 2000. The case  is on appeal from the Colorado Supreme Court's 4-to-3 ruling on December 19, 2023.

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