PREPARING FO A POSSIBLE TRUMP RETURN

No matter what happens in the upcoming U.S. elections, if EU support for NATO, Ukraine and other shared transatlantic challenges withers, the glue holding the U.S. and Europe together will start to come undone.  There’s no sugarcoating it,  a second Trump administration would spell major trouble for transatlantic relations. And while Europeans are, indeed, powerless to affect the outcome of the 2024 U.S. elections, they do have a year to prepare for the worst and make preparations for the storm.

LEADING GLOBAL RISK 2024: MISINFORMATION AND DISINFORMATION

Misinformation and disinformation may radically disrupt electoral processes in several economies over the next two years. A growing distrust of information, as well as media and governments as sources, will deepen polarized views a vicious cycle that could trigger civil unrest and possibly confrontation. There is a risk of repression and erosion of rights as authorities seek to crack down on the proliferation of false information as well as risks arising from inaction.

REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC FOREIGN POLICY TRIBES

Source: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)

Republican Tribes

Three main Republican foreign policy tribes are emerging and competing for the mind of the next Republican president. These are: the Restrainers, the Prioritizers, and the Primacists.

US POLITICAL CALENDAR 2024

Primaries and caucuses are two ways that people help states and political parties choose presidential nominees.

Presidential primaries

Most states hold primaries 6-9 months before a presidential election. Primary voters choose their preferred candidate anonymously by casting secret ballots. The state where the primary is held takes the results of the vote into account to award delegates to the winners.

Caucuses

TRUMP SECOND IMPEACHMENT

The second Trump impeachment occurred  in the waning days of the Trump presidency following the events on January 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol in which some supporters of President Trump attempted to disrupt the congressional certification of the 2020 presidential election as having been won by Joseph Biden. The House moved quickly following those events.

STANDING UP FOR PEACE

Author: Tal Mitnik, 18-year old Israeli sentenced to prison for refusing to enlist.

"This land has a problem- there are two nations with an undeniable connection to this place. But even with all the violence in the world, we could not erase the Palestinian people or their connection to this land, just as the Jewish people or our connection to the same land cannot be erased. The problem here is supremacy, the belief that this land belongs to only one people. Violence cannot solve the situation, neither by Hamas nor by Israel. There is no military solution to a political problem.

THE U.S. SUPREME COURT WILL DECIDE IF TRUMP CAN RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

Authors: Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern, SLATE

TRUMP PETITION TO THE U.S. SUPREME COURT

Trump is challenging decisions by the Colorado Supreme Court and Maine’s Democratic secretary of state to disqualify him under the 14th Amendment’s ban on “insurrectionists” in the wake of his supporters’ mob attack on Congress that followed his campaign to overturn the 2020 election.

In his petition to the Supreme Court Trump argues that he did not take part in an insurrection; that his eligibility should be determined by Congress, not the courts; and that the insurrectionist ban did not apply to the presidency in any case.

RUSSIAN SUBVERSION OBJECTIVES

1. Shape perceptions to advance specific foreign policy aims

 2. Shape perceptions to advance Russia’s broader worldview and interests

3. Sow confusion and mistrust. Specific supporting objectives related to each are described in what follows.

Strategic Objective 1. Shape Perceptions to Advance Specific Foreign Policy Aims

RUSSIAN SUBVERSION TECHNIQUES

Actors directly controlled by or openly affiliated with Russian state

Russian state actors

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